The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute, based at the University of Gothenburg, has just issued its 2025 report titled "25 Years of Autocratization – Democracy Trumped?", which offers in-depth insights into the state of democracy worldwide. Compiled just as Trump was elected in November 2024. See below for a special section on USA after the first six weeks of his presidency.
Four main types of country with + or - for trend towards or away from democracy
e.g Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Italy-
e.g UK+, Slovenia+, Canada+, Bulgaria, Croatia, Ghana, Israel, Alabania-. Nigeria-
e.g. Indonesia+, Mauritius+, Mongolia+, Hungary, India, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Rwanda,
e.g. Afghanistan, Belarus, China, Cuba, North Korea, Palestine/Gaza, Saudi Arabia
Key Findings from the 2025 V-Dem Democracy Report
Autocracy on The RiseFor the first time in over two decades, autocracies outnumber democracies globally, with 91 countries classified as autocratic compared to 88 as democratic.
Notably, only 29 countries are identified as liberal democracies, marking a significant decline in democratic governance .
Democratic Backsliding
Freedom of Expression:
How Does V-Dem measure Democracy?
Electoral Democracy Index (EDI): Measures the extent to which political leaders are elected under comprehensive suffrage in free and fair elections, with freedoms of association and expression guaranteed.Liberal Democracy Index (LDI): Evaluates the protection of individual and minority rights against the tyranny of the state and the majority.
Participatory Democracy Index: Assesses the level of active participation by citizens in political processes.
Deliberative Democracy Index: Measures the process by which decisions are made through public reasoning focused on the common good.
Egalitarian Democracy Index: Examines the extent to which all social groups enjoy equal capabilities to participate in the political process.
For instance, in 2024, countries like Norway and Sweden scored highly across these indices, reflecting robust democratic institutions. Conversely, nations experiencing democratic erosion showed significant declines in these scores .
Democracy in the World 2024
- Level of democracy for the average world citizen is back to 1985; by country averages, it is back to 1996.
- Democracy is losing out the most in terms of economic power. It is at its lowest level in over 50 years.
- It is a truly global wave of autocratization. Eastern Europe and South and Central Asia are in particularly steep decline
Autocracies and Democracies
- The world has fewer democracies (88) than autocracies (91) for the first time in over 20 years.
- Liberal democracies have become the least common regime type in the world, a total of 29 in 2024.
- Nearly 3 out of 4 persons in the world – 72% – now live in autocracies. This is the highest since 1978.
Alarming Loss of Freedom of Expression
- Losses in freedom of expression are alarming: Worsening in 44 countries by 2024, up from 35 in last year’s report.
- Clean elections declining in 25, freedom of association in 22, and rule of law in 18 countries.
Trends of Regime Transformation
- The “third wave” of autocratization is still rising after at least 25 years.
- Almost 40% of the world population live in autocratizing countries, 3.1 billion people.
- Countries with less than 6% of the world population–or 452 million – are democratizing. Two-thirds live in three countries: Brazil, Poland, and Thailand
Autocratizing Countries
- An increasing number of countries–now 45 – are autocratizing.
- 27 of the 45 autocratizers were democracies at the start of their episode. Of these, only 9 remain democracies in 2024. The fatality rate is 67%.
- The favourite weapon of autocratizers is media censorship, followed by undermining elections and civil society.
The USA
A DEMOCRATIC BREAKDOWN IN THE MAKING?
The scale of what is happening in the US is unprecedented
and prompts a closer look at what seems to be the fastest evolving episode of
autocratization the USA has been through in modern history. Unfortunately, the
just released V-Dem data only cover events until 31 December 2024, so we must
rely on other sources.
Processes of autocratization during the last 25 years have
typically evolved gradually with democratically elected leaders dismantling
constraints on executive power by “executive aggrandizement,” and each step
becoming the “new normal”. President Trump operates openly and acts rapidly to
the extent that even cautious analysts like Professor Steven Levitsky say the
regime is now some type of authoritarianism. How close is it to a regime
breakdown in the making?
USA DEMOCRACY AND TRUMP 1.0
Democracy took a beating during President Trump’s first time
in office. The LDI (Liberal democracy index) fell from 0.85 to 0.73 in those four years, bringing the
country back to its 1976 level – far below the regional average (Figure 1).
After losing the 2020 election, Trump tried to strongarm election officials to
“find” him extra votes, coerce Vice President Pence to alter the results, and watched quietly as insurgents raided
Congress. President Biden was installed and American democracy survived, but
did not recover fully. It is now weaker
than when Trump took office in 2017 and is being attacked a lot more than
before.
TRUMP 2.0: A (QUASI) TOTAL ATTACK ON THE INSTITUTIONS
Trump’s second administration is proving to be different
than his first. Trump ran an openly authoritarian campaign in 2024, pledging to
prosecute his rivals, punish critical media, and deploy the army to repress
protests. As of the time of writing, Trump has been in office for six weeks.
The speed with which American democracy is coming under strain has taken many observers
by surprise. The expansion of executive power, undermining of Congress’ power
of the purse, offensives on independent and counter-veiling institutions and
the media, as well as purging and dismantling of state institutions – classic
strategies of autocratizers – seem to be in action. The enabling silence among
critics fearful of retributions, is already prevalent.
Attacks on the rule of law
The judiciary is a key institution that autocratizers attack
during autocratization,5 especially in the early phase. A regime transition
necessarily requires that rule of law is bent in favor of an aspiring autocrat.
During his first day in office, President Trump pardoned
1,500 criminals convicted for the January 6 Capitol Hill assault. This was one
of the first steps in efforts to undermine legitimacy of courts and the rule of
law. By excusing and even celebrating past illegal attacks, President Trump has
also given a tacit but clear endorsement of future violence,8 according to
experts.
On 6 March, President Trump issued the first executive order
9 directly targeting the law firm representing former presidential candidate
Hillary Clinton in a move that can be interpreted as weaponizing the state.
President Trump has refused to follow court orders, and
claimed that “He who saves his country does not violate any law.” This
statement seems to reflect in the actions of the administration. There are
already over 70 lawsuits filed against President Trump and his administration
for breaking the law and the Constitution.
These efforts by the Trump administration to undermine the
judicial constraints on executive power recently prompted the American Bar
Association to issue a statement on the need to protect the rule of law. The
ABA identifies the administration’s actions as being especially problematic
because they “knowingly undermine the division of powers between the executive
and congressional branches set out within the US Constitution.”
Abolition of accountability institutions
Horizontal accountability – checks and balances – is at the
core of republican thinking and liberal democracy. Institutions providing
effective checks and balances are therefore typically among the first targets
during autocratization. Serious weakening of accountability is one of the early
indications of regime transition. Replacing civil servants with personal
loyalists and allies is one known tactic to achieve this.
That line runs through actions taken so far by the Trump
administration purging the highest levels of the Department of Defence, the
Justice Department, the Department of Homeland Security, Department of State,
USAID, and the FBI of those not personally loyal to him. Purges also have signalling
effects, discouraging civil servants from questioning actions of the president
in the future.
Trump also fired independent Inspector Generals across 17
agencies and is seeking to replace them with loyalists. Similarly, he fired the
head of the Office of Special Counsel, who is responsible for protecting
whistleblowers. In the following court case, the Justice Department filed an
appeal arguing that the court must not encroach on the President’s executive
authority – one of many actions seeking to expand executive power.
The perhaps most serious challenge comes from violations of
Congress’ power of the purse enshrined in the Constitution, and the 1974
Impoundment Control Act. These are now discussed as a constitutional crisis in
the making. The list of legal cases involving claims to unconstrained power
made by the administration is long and revealing of efforts to do away with
liberal democracy’s foundation of principles of checks and balances.
Purges in the military
During executive-led autocratization, securing passive
bystanding by the military is often instrumental. Purging the top-ranks in the
military and replacing based on allegiances is a tactic often used.
Trump has started purging the military by removing the
nation’s highest-ranking military officer, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, as well as the Chief of Naval Operations, Vice Chief of Staff of the Air
Force. Replacements have pledged personal loyalty to Trump.
Firing the military’s top judge advocates general – who have
the independent legal authority to tell that an order from the president or the
secretary of defence is unlawful and should not be obeyed, provides another
worrying sign of seeking to make the military a subservient bystander.
Attacks on freedom of the media
Suppression of media freedom is the most common weapon of
choice among autocratizing leaders over the past 25 years (see Section 3),
using tactics from threats and lawsuits, to worse.
Trump started intimidating the media already during his
campaign when he repeatedly threatened to strip broadcasting licenses from
stations. In the same vein, Trump is threatening to sue publishers and media
who use anonymous sources, which would be a big blow to freedom of expression
and the media. The effect already materialized with Washington Post (WP) owner
Jeff Bezos stopping the WP from endorsing Kamala Harris,32 and then announcing
a “refocusing” WP’s editorial stance in a deferral to Trump.
The White House is now claiming it has the right to pick
which media and reporters are allowed to cover the President, ripping it away
from the White House Correspondents’ Association. It so far denied access to
HuffPost and the Associated Press reminiscent of the autocratization tactic to
stir the rhetoric in favour of the President and retaliate against media who
diverge from his views. Such moves towards autocratization also suggests a
possible regime transition.
DOGE
A special case of eschewing accountability and dismantling
state institutions is the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency
(DOGE) led by billionaire Elon Musk. Notwithstanding its name, it is not a
government department and appears to be accountable only to Trump.
Despite his conflicts of interest, Musk has access to
sensitive, private, and classified information. In at least 11 lawsuits,
plaintiffs argue that DOGE has flouted laws and rules around data and privacy.
Due to its opacity, it is not possible to know how far DOGE has gone, but it
has already fired tens of thousands of government employees. Among them are
United States Agency for International Development (USAID) officers,
effectively closing an agency instituted by a Congressional act. That will have
grave and enduring consequences not only for the US, but also for democracy
globally since USAID was by far the largest actor in the international
democracy support community.
Upending the USAID may be the plainest affront on
republican-liberal principles of horizontal accountability and the powers of
Congress yet. It may also become the first area where the Trump
administration’s willingness to abide by court rulings and be bound by rule of
law, will be put to the ultimate test. With a razor thin majority, the Supreme
Court on 5 March ruled against the administration and in favour of Congress’
right to have its appropriations carried out. This may be the litmus test for
American democracy.
Given the ongoing assaults, is the USA heading towards
democratic breakdown, or not?